In the age of competition, companies do not have any other choices than to compete better than their competitors. Human Resource Management has critical role to play in corporate strategic plan. All the HR functions contribute positively to achieving the objective. The main task of HR is to support other departments to have the best people.
Forecasting helps to match the requirements and the availabilities of employees. There are two kinds of forecasting methods: qualitative and quantitative methods. This article discusses how Forecasting are valuable for successful Human Resource Management to function in a company.
Matching human resource requirements and potential human resource availability:
Matching Human resources with planned organizational activities for the present and the future is one of the main problems faced by an organization. Human resources have a certain degree of inflexibility, both in terms of their development and their utilization. It takes several months to recruit, select, place, and train the average employee; in the case of higher-echelon Management personnel in large organizations, the process may take years. Decisions on personnel recruitment and development are strategic and produce long-lasting effects. Therefore, Management must forecast the demand and supply of Human resources as part of the organization’s business and functional planning processes. Long-term business requirements, promotion policies, and recruitment (supply) possibilities have to be matched so that Human resources requirements and availability estimates (from both internal and external sources) correspond sufficiently.
Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative forecasts are essentially educated guesses or estimates by individuals who have some knowledge of previous HR availability’s or utilization
Technique
Description
1. Nominal Group
A group of four or five participants is asked to present their views regarding labor forecasts. These views are written down, with no discussion until all of the members have advanced their positions. The group then discusses the information presented and, subsequently, a final ballot is taken to determine its judgment.
2. Delphi Technique
This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate Written, expert opinions on labor forecasts. After answers are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed t the experts, who are then requested to submitted revised forecasts. experts never meet face-to-face, but rather communicate through the facilitator.
3. Replacement Planning
Forecasting estimates are based on charting techniques, which identify current job incumbents and relevant information about each of them. This information typically includes a brief assessment of performance and potential, age length of time in current position, and overall length of service.
4. Allocation Planning
This technique involves judgments about labor supply or demand by observing the movement of employees through positions at the same organizational level.
Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
There are several quantitative methods for determining labor supply and demand
Technique
Description
1. Regression Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using relevant variables, such as sales.
2. Time-Series Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected by isolating trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular effects.
3. Economic Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using a specified form of the production function.
4. Linear Programming Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are analyzed using an objective function as well as organizational and environmental constraints.
5. Markov Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using historical transition rates.
The following factors for the choice of a forecasting technique
Conclusion:
Forecasting has an important role in successful Human Resource Management of a company. By predicting the number of employees to be hired and also by estimating and knowing their quality, a company would get the best people for the right places and at the right time. This is necessary if a company wants to compete in the global market.
“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present”
John Naisbitt
By Nilesh Shah
Laurent & Benon Management Consultants Ltd, a public limited company with its corporate office Gurgaon with Pan India presence. We as an organization strive to offer the right Human Resource Solutions at the right time and enable our clients to enhance the net worth of their human resource capital.
For further information Please visit us at Welcome to Laurent & Benon
From India, Pune
Forecasting helps to match the requirements and the availabilities of employees. There are two kinds of forecasting methods: qualitative and quantitative methods. This article discusses how Forecasting are valuable for successful Human Resource Management to function in a company.
Matching human resource requirements and potential human resource availability:
Matching Human resources with planned organizational activities for the present and the future is one of the main problems faced by an organization. Human resources have a certain degree of inflexibility, both in terms of their development and their utilization. It takes several months to recruit, select, place, and train the average employee; in the case of higher-echelon Management personnel in large organizations, the process may take years. Decisions on personnel recruitment and development are strategic and produce long-lasting effects. Therefore, Management must forecast the demand and supply of Human resources as part of the organization’s business and functional planning processes. Long-term business requirements, promotion policies, and recruitment (supply) possibilities have to be matched so that Human resources requirements and availability estimates (from both internal and external sources) correspond sufficiently.
Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative forecasts are essentially educated guesses or estimates by individuals who have some knowledge of previous HR availability’s or utilization
Technique
Description
1. Nominal Group
A group of four or five participants is asked to present their views regarding labor forecasts. These views are written down, with no discussion until all of the members have advanced their positions. The group then discusses the information presented and, subsequently, a final ballot is taken to determine its judgment.
2. Delphi Technique
This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate Written, expert opinions on labor forecasts. After answers are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed t the experts, who are then requested to submitted revised forecasts. experts never meet face-to-face, but rather communicate through the facilitator.
3. Replacement Planning
Forecasting estimates are based on charting techniques, which identify current job incumbents and relevant information about each of them. This information typically includes a brief assessment of performance and potential, age length of time in current position, and overall length of service.
4. Allocation Planning
This technique involves judgments about labor supply or demand by observing the movement of employees through positions at the same organizational level.
Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
There are several quantitative methods for determining labor supply and demand
Technique
Description
1. Regression Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using relevant variables, such as sales.
2. Time-Series Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected by isolating trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular effects.
3. Economic Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using a specified form of the production function.
4. Linear Programming Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are analyzed using an objective function as well as organizational and environmental constraints.
5. Markov Model
Fluctuations in labor levels are projected using historical transition rates.
The following factors for the choice of a forecasting technique
- Organization's environment
- Organization size.
- Perceived uncertainty in labor markets and economy
- Competition.
Conclusion:
Forecasting has an important role in successful Human Resource Management of a company. By predicting the number of employees to be hired and also by estimating and knowing their quality, a company would get the best people for the right places and at the right time. This is necessary if a company wants to compete in the global market.
“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present”
John Naisbitt
By Nilesh Shah
Laurent & Benon Management Consultants Ltd, a public limited company with its corporate office Gurgaon with Pan India presence. We as an organization strive to offer the right Human Resource Solutions at the right time and enable our clients to enhance the net worth of their human resource capital.
For further information Please visit us at Welcome to Laurent & Benon
From India, Pune
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Handbook of Human Resource Management Practice.pdf
Human Resource Management.ppt